台灣地區死亡率推估實證研究與相關年金問題探討An Empirical Study on Death Rate Estimation and

摘要
近年來，由於醫療科技與經濟的進步，使得死亡率呈現逐年下降的趨勢，老年人口也隨之增加，而官方生命表必須每隔一段時間重新編制，以維持資料的代表性。自民國86年財政部頒布第一回年金生命表後，間隔約15年後，民國101年第二回年金生命表才正式公布，然而，此間隔期間內死亡率的改善導致純保費(以傳統年金精算現值方法計算)的低估。本研究以第一回與第二回年金生命表的死亡率為依據，在年齡、年代與世代模型假設下，探討死亡率下降趨勢對年金純保費的影響。
關鍵詞：死亡率改善、純保費、年齡、年代與世代
Abstract
In recent years, medical developments and economic advancement have resulted in a steady decline in death rates and an increase in the elderly population. Because of these changes, the government must revise the life table periodically to ensure its accuracy. The first life table of Taiwan was issued in 1997, and the second was not released until 2012. Between 1997 and 2012, the decline in death rates led to an underestimation of the net premium (calculated using the classic actuarial present value of annuities). The present study used the age-period-cohort model as well as the 1997 and 2012 life tables for annuities to explore the effect of declining death rates on the net premium for annuities.