台灣地區老年長期照護費用推估

　　隨著台灣地區人口老化及照護需求人數逐年增加，長期照護體系的建制已刻不容緩，其中，又以長期照護財務處理方式的設計最為重要，究要採社會保險方式、稅收支應或以自由投保方式進行，值得慎重考量。然不論何種財務設計，終究需先推估長期照護財務費用，方能就政府財政負擔能力、民眾付費意願等面向進行評估。是以本文旨在推估台灣地區未來長期照護費用。惟長期照護費用取決於照護服務使用型態，例如居家與機構照護的使用結構，另一方面，長期照護費用亦取決於照護費用的界定，是否只計算直接成本，或是將間接照護成本納入考量。本文參考其他國家實施長期照護制度的經驗，嘗試由居家照護、機構照護等不同照護型態，推估臺灣地區長期照護服務費用，此外，本文特色在於，照護費用不僅考量直接成本，更將間接成本一併納入分析，期透過更周延的長期財務費用模擬，評估社會與民眾的財務負擔情形，以作為後續臺灣地區長期照護財務規劃時參考。

關鍵字：長期照護、長期照護費用推估

Financial Projections of Long-Term Care in Taiwan
A well-constructed system of long-term care requires more attention in Taiwan, where the number demanding care increases yearly. The key financial policy issues concerning social insurance, voluntary commercial insurance, and the level of government support have not yet been settled. Estimating the total costs of long-term care is essential to evaluate the financial burden to the government and the willingness of the public to pay. The cost of long-tem care is related both to utilization patterns, e.g. the proportion of home care to institutional care, and to the definition of costs. The current study simulates the total costs of long-term care in Taiwan over the next fifty years. Data from developed countries is also taken into consideration to make projections about indirect costs.

Keywords: long-term care, financial projection